General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research ،Administration of Economic & Social Studies
Faculty of Agriculture,Damascus University,
The study was conducted in Hama governorate in second zone area during the season (2011/2012), in order to measure the changes impact of costs and prices in the cropping pattern for grains, where depended on primary data for random simple sample consisted of (200) farmers, pulled from villages which follow the Directorate of Agriculture in Hama. The study was based on estimating the change in the cultivated grain areas functions, in terms of changes in the components of production costs and selling prices for each grain crop, in order to measure the impact of the studied factors in the share of grain crops areas in Hama cropping pattern, by comparing production costs indicators and selling prices for the study season with those in the (2007/2008) season as a representative of the base period.
The results showed a decline in the cultivated grain areas, between seasons with an average of (7.8) dunum for irrigated wheat, and (0.81) dunum for rainfed barley, and (5.81) dunum for the irrigated yellow corn, where these areas planted with other crops that are more profitable, such as cumin and anise. The irrigated wheat areas were affected significantly by the change in wheat selling price, chemical and organic fertilization cost, and the irrigation cost, as it turns those rainfed barley areas were not affected by the independent factors of cost elements changes, while it affected significantly by the change in the selling price. The irrigated maize areas were affected by both changes in tillage and chemical fertilization and irrigation costs; the results showed a significant rise in most of the operations wage items and the cost of production requirements for grain crops during the season (2011/2012) compared with the season (2007/2008). It has been also accompanied by a significant decline in most of added amounts of production requirements and number of agricultural operations during the compared seasons, and in parallel with the rise in costs during the period (2008-2011) the value of net wheat profits decreased by an average of (6118.22) SL/dunum. In addition, the increase in irrigation and chemical fertilization costs formed (33%) and (20%) respectively of the total increase in wheat production costs. However, the profitability of the rainfed barley declined in parallel with the rise in production costs, where chemical fertilizers cost was the most changeable element by (33%) from total production costs changes, followed by tillages wages cost (24%). Concerning rainfed barley profitability, the high barley prices had led to an increase in yield value about (500.15) SL/dunums, but it could not cover the increase in costs, which led to a decline in net profit value with an average of (1592.36) SL/dunums. About irrigated maize and in parallel with the differences in total costs and values of production outputs, the dunum profit was different, and had taken a negative trend in the season (2011/2012), where The maize farmers were forfeited in the season (2011/2012) with an average loss (3770.16) SL/dunum, that made the profitability in (2007/2008) the highest with an average of (5107,58) SL/dunum; this contradicted the rest of grain crops which remained profitable in season (2011/2012) despite the great changes in costs and revenues. As it turns that the change outweighed in maize irrigation cost with a contribution rate (32%), followed by seed cost (21%), then chemical fertilization costs (17%) of total costs change. The study concluded that the contribution of wheat cost changes outweigh in wheat profitability changes to the contribution of changes in the yield value about (58.98%) during the two compared seasons, The barley cost changes contributed by (51.89%) of the changes in profitability compared to (48.11%) the contribution of the change in yield value, while the contribution of changes in irrigated maize yield value was (71.79%) of profitability changes, compared to (28.21%) contribution rate for costs changes.